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Nott'm Forest vs Aston Villa

Sat 20 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 30 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Nott'm Forest win: 33.9%

Draw: 23.8%

Aston Villa win: 42.3%

Predicted: Aston Villa

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 65.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.28

More corners: Aston Villa (43.4% home / 56.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Aston Villa

Yes

Probability Aston Villa wins or draws: 72.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Aston Villa Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 34%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (65.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Aston Villa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.